Sharpshorts Daily Trade Results: FLO TRADES : Swing-Trading-System First & Last Monday & Friday B4 OEX

A simple strategy for going long...

December 2014 thru March 2017 -- Archives

(This page is no longer being updated. For current updates see the FLO Trade page (link) on my main blog)

Ideas on this page are adapted from Larry Williams , a very successful speculator.

(He also developed the Williams%R indicator)

Some of his work revolved around the idea of the "seasonality" of markets.

His statistical analysis suggested that certain times of the year presented more favorable entries than other times. He applied his work to the main futures markets before the development of the e-mini futures markets.

This page documents the results of my adaptations of Mr. Williams' strategies.

Following these two simple rules have provided a success rate approaching 75%.

1...BUY the First and last Mondays of every month.

Take 10% of the previous session's range and add that to the open price for the entry

2...BUY the Friday before OEX at the close..............

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Thx to surfcat on the iHub New Clearstation board for bringing Larry's method to my attention...
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03/29/2017...Update
So - can you make money with FLO trades, trading just 3 times a month?

03/27/2017 March -- Last Monday of the month

Prices dropped in the overnight allowing for a good fill at the MMO...Up for the session.

03/10/2017 March -- Friday before OEX

03/06/2017 March -- 1st Monday of the month
The last Monday of February trade caught last week's nice up-thrust.
When the market is bullish there is no need for an entry technique.
Seeing some similarities in price action of the past 2 months' FLO trades
IE - consolidation following the entry leading to out-sized gains...(one more time?)

02/30/2017 February -- Last Monday of the month

Not a lot of difference between an entry at the session open or the MMO open

Didn't take long...

02/10/2017 February -- Friday before OEX

02/06/2017 February -- 1st Monday of the month
The 1st Monday trade has been a huge winner for the previous 4 months...
Looks like even with the strong up-trend since the election the last Monday trade has
been the hardest entry to hold through the dips.

01/30/2017 January -- Last Monday of the month
Sunday night session open

01/13/2017 January -- Friday before OEX

01/03/2017 January -- 1st Monday of the month
Markets were closed Monday so these charts show Tuesday's entry...
An excellent entry to start off the new year -- up $1550 per contract as of 01/08/2017

12/26/2016 December -- Last Monday of the month
Markets were closed Monday so these charts show Tuesday's entry

12/16/2016 December - - Friday Update
Rollover from the December contract to March causes changes
to all previous entry level flags on the charts below this one ...
The adjusted level for last week's Friday before OEX trade becomes 2259...
As of today's close we're down about 3 points.

12/09/2016 December -- Friday before OEX

The methodology required an entry around 2261...

12/05/2016 December -- 1st Monday of the month
About as perfect an entry as there is...Lately the last Monday trade has resulted in fails
while the first Monday and the Friday before OEX has resulted in winners.
Roughly a 66% Win/Loss ratio for the methodology for the past 3 months since September...

11/28/2016 November -- Last Monday of the month

Sunday night entry at 2208...

Great runs for the previous 1st Monday and Fri B4 OEX...we shall see if it continues.

11/14/2016 November -- Friday before OEX

11/07/2016 November -- 1st Monday of the month

2105 entry price...ELECTION WEEK

10/31/2016 October -- Last Monday of the month
Entry at 2124...

10/14/2016 October -- Friday before OEX
Adding 10% of the previous day's range culminated in No Fills for the last two FLO trade entries.
Buying at the close always gets a fill...

10/03/2016 October -- 1st Monday of the month

2160 entry price...No fill at the MMO.

09/26/2016 September -- Last Monday of the month
No fill

9/09/2016 September -- Friday before OEX
Not looking good as of Monday's overnight...

09/04/2016 September -- 1st Monday of the month
Bullish declining wedge for this month's entry

08/29/2016 August -- Last Monday of the month
Flat-lining overnight - entry @ 2171

08/12/2016 August...Friday before OEX
Another bullish flag on a pole pattern...entry @2180

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08/01/2016 August...1st Monday of the month Entry

Bullish flag on a pole pattern...Fill @ 2170 at the MMO open.

Fill @ 2173 Sunday night as the session started.

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Update 7/30/2016

July's OEX and the Last Monday trades are both in the green...

+50 points ($2500) and +8 points ($400) respectively...

July 25, 2016 -- Last Monday of the month

Same as July's 1st Monday entry, this entry also has the look of buying-at-the-top to me...

(edit 7/29 - has been stuck in a narrow range channel since entry...)

A $300 better entry at the Major Market Open vs the session open (6 points)

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07/20/2016 Update

The OEX trade is doing very well...more than making up for being stopped

on the 1st Monday trade.

07/07/2016 July...Friday before OEX

Bought the close @2120

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07/04/2016 July...1st Monday of the month Entry

This Monday's entry has the look of buying-at-the-top to me...

(edit 7/29 - Was Right short term but Wrong 4 days later)

Little difference in entry levels between Sunday night's session open

and Monday's major market open .

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06/27/2016 June ... Last Monday of the month

2025 is the buy entry level if entering at the Sunday night session open.

Price didn't hit 2025 during the overnight session.

No fill during the major market session either...

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06/17/2016 June's OEX entry results...

Assuming an entry was taken, lotta drawdown if you held...and it's still red...

06/10/2016 June...Friday before OEX

A big drop starting in the overnight session may have set up a very good entry Friday's close.

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06/09/2016 June...1st Monday Entry

Missed posting the chart on the 6th...holding it's own so far, up about +$100.

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05/29/2016 May...Last Monday of the month

Memorial Day...session closes at 1 pm EST.
Considering the shortened MMO session I am calling this a 'No Fill".

No fill at the 9:30 MMO as of 11:00 AM

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05/27/2016 OEX entry results...

Reminder - The upcoming Last Monday of the month entry will be Memorial Day...

05/13/2016 May...Friday before OEX

Fill was at the low of day. It will be interesting seeing if this entry can continue the string of OEX winners.

May's 1st Monday entry was a good fill for a day before tanking the next day.

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05/01/2016 May...First Monday of the month

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04/29/2016 April...Last Monday of the month

I missed posting this on the 25th...

The Friday before OEX seems to afford good entries and results so far this year

although they all prove profitable when markets are in up trends.

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04/15/2016 April...Friday before OEX

I missed posting this on the 8th...

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I missed posting this on the 4th...

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4/05/2016...March FLO trades

March FLO trades were all winners if you could withstand the draw downs...

For the 1st quarter of 2016, 7 of 9 were gainers .- an amazing 87.5% Win/Loss ratio...

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03/29/2016 March...Last Monday of the month

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3/23/2016 First Quarter FLO Trade Results

Still have Mar's last Monday entry to tally

Some of the entries assume the trader held the positions through substantial draw-downs...

Obviously the Win/Loss numbers are better when the overall market is in an up trend

(March to June contract rollover causes some of the level flags to be slightly off)

03/19/2016 OEX buy-in RESULTS

Note - the charts below are of the YM with FLO trade rules applied (+$2000).

The ES OEX entry has produced similar but less spectacular results (+$1400) ...

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03/11/2016 March...Friday before OEX buy-in

Trended up from the session start, closing at the high...(same as last month's buy-in)

Contract rollover causes the level flags to be slightly off.

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03/07/2016 March... 1st Monday of the month

03/06/2016...FLO trades for February resulted in 2 out of 3 gainers

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02/29/2016 February...Last Monday of the month
...Entry buy-stop placed for 1946...filled shortly after the session opened.

The Session Open entry on Sunday night and the Major Market Open entry were at the same levels...

The OEX entry was a 'perfect' entry... It's looking like the Last Monday entry is looking good as well,
albeit the substantial draw-down after entry that had to be withstood ...

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02/12/2016 February...Friday before OEX buy-in
Trended up from the session start, closing at the high...

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02/01/2016 February... 1st Monday of the month
Sunday night open Buy-in did not get a fill...the major market open filled @ 1925.
(added ~10% of Friday's range to the opening prices for the entry buy stops)

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01/25/2016 January...Last Monday of the month
Entry at high of day does not bode well...prices closing near the re-test area of Friday's rally starting level.

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01/15/2016 January...Friday before OEX buy-in
Stochastic is oversold and MAC trend is in the lower part of the study. Bounced up from "support" at last October's low.

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01/04/2016 Over night update
Using Sunday's session open for the 1st Monday entry would have resulted in a buy-in very near the top...
and a whole lotta drawdown afterward.

No fill at the MMO...

Fill late in the session...

01/03/2016... 1st Monday of the month
Harami reversal patterns forming so far tonight - perhaps a good buy-in for tomorrow's open...

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12/31/2015 Thursday update
Nice gains could have been had on Tuesday but by the EOW they were gone...

12/27/2015 December...Last Monday of the month

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12/16/2015 Wednesday morning update

12/14/2015 Monday morning update

12/11/2015 December...Friday before OEX buy-in

A big drop, closing near the lows makes for an excellent entry point this time...

This entry is very close to last month's level and price action...We shall see

if the results are similar....I missed posting the 1st Monday buy-in chart this week - it probably

would have gotten stopped out that day or the next or perhaps not getting a fill at the MMO anyway.

The 15 minute session charts looking ripe for reversals for the 4 horsemen...

MACD histogram & EMAs are divergent as well as stochastic being in the oversold area and hooking up.

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11/30/2015 Update

Calling the early morning entry a fill although the buy-stop area was not tagged during the major market session...

11/30/2015 November...Last Monday of the month

So far there has been no entry (8:45 PM Sunday night). Quite a big move for the Fri B4 OEX entry...

Early morning fill for the Last Monday buy-in

No fill if using the MMO for entry...a lot of draw-down if using the early morning buy.

Stalking a better entry...I had my chances

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11/13/2015 November...Friday before OEX buy-in

Nice drop for the entry...if you had the guts.

Nov's 1st Monday entry was disappointing...

If you waited for Monday's session - -

using a buy-stop set at Friday's closing price, the same 2013 entry level could have been had...

Sometimes things go your way...

11/03/2015 November...1st Monday of the month

A no fill entry for the last Monday of October was made up for a good fill for the first Monday buy-in this month.

10/26/2015 October...Last Monday of the month

Calling it a "No fill" as price never popped up to entry level.

10/09/2015 October...Friday before OEX buy-in

Ominous spinner at the close makes me think this entry will get stopped on Sun/Monday.

Last Monday's trade sure did well...

10/04/2015 October...1st Monday of the month Buy-in

09/27/2015 September...Last Monday of the month

Using Monday's session open

Session Open and MMO trade management as of 10:20 AM

09/11/2015 September...Friday before OEX buy-in

09/07/2015 September...1st Monday of the month Buy-in

Perhaps adding to the position at the MMO may increase the total return...
Buy-Stop 4 points above the 9:30 open...

Protecting a good gain on the 1st - offsetting the loss on the 2nd

08/31/2015...Last Monday of the month buy-in
A significant difference in position cost using the session open vs. the major market open this time...

08/14/2015...Friday before OEX buy-in
As it turned out, Sunday's session open would have gotten the same fill as Friday's close.

This was how it looked at the close Thursday night.

08/02/2015...First Monday of the month
Not a good entry for this month...if you had used the session open on Sunday night the entry was @ 2099...

07/30/2015...Last Monday Update
This buy-in has proved to be excellent but with big drawdown. Over $1100 per contract so far...
Beware the BZ ...The upcoming 1st Monday of the month buy-in may not be as accommodating
(session starts this Sunday night).

07/26/2015...OEX and Last Monday
I missed posting the OEX trade which after some drawdown ran up nicely...we'll see if the last Monday buy-in works as well.

07/06/2015...1st Monday of the month
Another accommodating drop for the entry...a great entry was available Sunday night for the session open.
The horizontal arrow marks the major market open fill

06/29/2015...Last Monday of the month
Good drop for the buy-in using Sunday's session open...

Last Monday buy-in using the major market open...

But the day was a-wash of selling, perhaps the closure of the Greek banks for a week is giving bulls pause.
That's what predefined stops are for...

06/19/2015...Friday OEX update
Would have had to withstand a lot of drawdown on Monday after the buy-in although it did end this week positive.

06/12/2015...Friday before OEX
Got a nice pull back for the buy-in today.

06/05/2015...Comment
Seems that the buy-in on the Friday before OEX has the best success rate vs the first and last Mondays buy-in...
3 for 4 went higher with minimal draw-down...April's play would have put you in a sell-stop position
two or three times before a good exit presented itself...

05/31/2015...First Monday of the month
Last Friday's pull back may offer a good entry buy-in this month...

Filled if entering on the session opening...2109.00

Waiting for the majors to open filled at 2115.25

05/25/2015...Memorial Day
Last Monday of the month
Majors are closed due to the holiday and today's futS half session is so light on volume that I'm calling it a no-fill...

05/08/2015...Friday before OEX

05/04/2015...1st Monday of May
Using Sunday night's start for the start of the new session, a Buy-Stop would have resulted in a fill at 4:30 AM Monday morning.

Using 9:30 AM as the start time would have resulted in a higher fill...
...very little draw-down after either fill...

04/27/2015...Last Monday of April update
Was a down day from the get go - will call it a "No Fill" on the major market session buy-in.
If a position was taken last night there was an opportunity to exit with a gain or at break-even.

04/26/2015...Last Monday Session of April

Major Market OPENed and dropped --- no fill so far. A Buy-stop order is set for 2120.75...

4/24/2015...OEX update
Gains on the entry to date but draw-down would have been pretty large...
Tough mega-phone to hold the position thru.

04/10/2015...Friday before OEX

04/06/2015...1st Monday of April

Buying Sunday night at the session open would have the entry around 2042.

Waiting for the major market open provided a good fill too...

3/30/2015...Last Monday of March
Fill at 2067 shortly after the open and moving up.

If using the session open on Sunday, a better fill around 2055 was available...

3/29/2015...Sunday
The last Monday of the month buy-in is tomorrow...some conflicting technicals have printed...
A long tailed hammer has formed a double bottom for the bullish case but the trend, the penetration of the longer
term lower wedge support line and the drop below the BZ retrace area are bearish...
Friday's spinner reflects the current directional indecision.

March 20, 2015...Friday before OEX results
One week later... Up $275 per contract as of today.

March 13, 2015...Friday before OEX
We had an accommodating pull back for this month's OEX entry after the gain Thursday.
There are supportive technicals for this entry; stochastic is over sold, the MACD histogram slope is moving up
and lower wedge line may provide support for a reversal of the move down from February's highs.

03/11/2015...update
In spite of a decent entry area for March's 1st Monday trade, it has been a massive money loser if held to date...
This Friday will be the entry for the week before OEX - the ES daily is currently entering oversold and approaching
several potential reversal zones. We shall see if Friday turns things around, at least on a short term basis.

The RUT hasn't dipped into O/S --- the others are there now.

March 3, 2015...1st Monday of March
Good 1st Monday entry on an up day...

Nice accommodating open for this entry - trended up from 9:30 thru 10:30 to fill the buy-stop.
Only a minor pull back thru lunch time then steadily up...

02/24/2015...Last Monday of February
No fill yesterday, the last Monday of February. Feb's 1st Monday and Friday before OEX buy-ins are doing well...

02/20/2015...OEX buy-in update
Closing in record territory again.

02/13/2015...Friday before OEX
Will be interesting seeing the results of this entry...possibly breaking out of the 130 point channel

02/08/2015...update
Excellent timing for the 1st Monday entry for February...

01/26/2015...summary
This month's buy-ins resulted in 1 no-fill and 2 fills...both of which have resulted in major draw downs if held...

01/20/2015...update
Using the 10% of previous session's range rule, no fill would have occurred on the previous 1st and last Mondays...
The latest OEX buy has resulted in a very large draw down so far...down over 50 points (-$2500) on the 16th's OEX.
Although it has recovered some since then, I doubt if I could have held through such a large drop.

01/09/2015...Friday before OEX
Filled at 2033 at the end of the day...nice pull back for entry

01/05/2015
An order placed @2050 would not have filled in the overnight session or after the majors opened Monday...

01/04/2015...FLO
First Monday of January...The session starts tonight.
Here are some add'l rational for playing this time, based on Friday's reversal pattern target...